Learn / Core arithmetic

What the edge number actually means.

PICKD does not predict player performance. It compares two published quantities at the exact same prop line: the probability implied by a payout and a fair probability derived from a two-sided reference market.

1. Find the payout’s break-even.

For an all-or-nothing slip with total payout multiplier M and n independent legs, the per-leg break-even is:

This is the hit rate each leg would need if every leg had the same probability. Book-specific multipliers can imply different break-even probabilities for each side.

2. Remove the reference margin.

A two-sided book publishes an over price and an under price. Their raw implied probabilities usually add to more than 100%; the excess is the book margin. PICKD removes that margin to create a normalized fair probability.

The strike must match. A 2.5 line is not silently compared with 3.5, and a missing side does not become an invented price.

3. Measure the exact-line gap.

The result is expressed in percentage points, not a guarantee or a projected return. A positive number says the published reference probability is above the payout’s break-even at that matched line.

Evidence changes how a number is ranked.

Confirmed evidence means multiple usable reference books agree closely at the exact strike. Single-source or soft evidence remains visible but ranks below stronger agreement. One-sided markets are treated as signals, not complete fair probabilities.